Italy comes into this fixture looking to make amends for a mixed 2024 campaign. After a disappointing title defense at Euro 2024, the Azzurri showed promise in the Nations League group stage, securing four wins before a home defeat to France. Under Luciano Spalletti’s guidance, a revamped squad and tactical shifts have injected new life into the team, but the challenge now is overcoming a strong German side.

Germany, on the other hand, has been one of Europe’s most consistent teams this season. Julian Nagelsmann's squad secured top spot in their group in dominant fashion, highlighted by a 7-0 thrashing of Bosnia-Herzegovina. With an average of three goals per game in this competition, the Germans are full of confidence and eager to claim their first-ever Nations League trophy.

The last meeting between these two sides was a dramatic 5-2 victory for Germany in 2022, leaving Italy with unfinished business. With a second leg in Dortmund looming, the first match in Milan could prove decisive.

Italy has been hit with some injury concerns, particularly in the wing-back positions. Federico Dimarco is sidelined, and Andrea Cambiaso remains a doubt. This could open the door for Destiny Udogie or Matteo Ruggeri on the left flank. In midfield, Torino’s Cesare Casadei could make his senior debut, while Juventus' Manuel Locatelli has been left out. Up front, Matteo Retegui and Moise Kean are both in fine form, but Spalletti may opt for a more cautious approach with an extra midfielder.

Germany is also dealing with notable absences, including Kai Havertz, Benjamin Henrichs, Florian Wirtz, and goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen. Leon Goretzka returns to the squad, while Karim Adeyemi and Nadiem Amiri have earned recalls. Uncapped Inter defender Yann Bisseck could make his debut, while Joshua Kimmich is set to earn his 98th cap.

Italy possible starting lineup

Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Bastoni; Cambiaso, Frattesi, Rovella, Tonali, Udogie; Barella; Retegui

Germany possible starting lineup

Nubel; Kimmich, Rudiger, Schlotterbeck, Mittelstadt; Andrich, Gross; Sane, Musiala, Adeyemi; Kleindienst

With Germany missing key players, Italy has a strong chance of securing a first-leg advantage at home. Spalletti’s side has been resilient in Milan, and their attacking options are improving. However, Germany remains a dangerous opponent, especially with their firepower in midfield and attack.

Prediction: Italy 2-1 Germany

While the Azzurri may edge this encounter, the second leg in Dortmund will still be a crucial battle in determining who advances to the semi-finals.