This season, like many before, sees Manchester City under Pep Guardiola as the top favorite to win the English Premier League (EPL). Even when Guardiola first arrived in 2016, City was favored to win, despite the squad being less star-studded than today. However, they fell short, finishing 15 points behind Chelsea.
Bookmakers have rarely been wrong about City's chances. The exceptions are Guardiola's first season and the 2019/2020 campaign when Liverpool dominated the league.
Manchester City has claimed the EPL title in six of the last eight seasons under Guardiola, showing a dominance that is often underestimated. However, despite their impressive record, the pre-season odds never fully reflected City's dominance.
Bookmakers’ odds are often the best indicator of what might happen in sports. Yet, despite the odds favoring City, this season might be different. Here’s why Manchester City might not lift the EPL trophy this time around:
Last season, Manchester City collected 91 points with a +62 goal difference, marking their fifth and fourth worst results, respectively, under Guardiola. While this is still an outstanding performance by historical EPL standards, it was below what we've come to expect from City.
In the last two seasons, City’s performance metrics have been consistent. If they maintain the same level this season, they could be overtaken, especially if a competitor has an extraordinary season.
City’s key players, including Rodri, Phil Foden, and Kevin De Bruyne, are either nearing or have surpassed their peak years. Rodri, City’s leader in playing time last season, is approaching the end of his prime. Similarly, Foden exceeded expectations last season, making it unlikely he will replicate such form.
Meanwhile, Ederson has hinted at a future move to Saudi Arabia, and Julián Álvarez has already left for Atlético Madrid. With a squad aging rapidly and key departures, City could face challenges maintaining their elite performance levels.
In previous seasons, City’s dominance was clear. However, this year they face fierce competition from Arsenal and Liverpool. If City were only competing with Arsenal, their chances would still be above 50%. But with both clubs in the mix, City’s path to another title is far from assured.
Arsenal boasts a young squad, with key players like Bukayo Saka, William Saliba, and Gabriel Martinelli yet to hit their full potential. Meanwhile, Liverpool has the likes of Darwin Núñez and Dominik Szoboszlai, who could help them mount a serious title challenge, even without Jürgen Klopp at the helm.
For the first time in a long while, City’s squad appears vulnerable. Aging players, key departures, and stronger rivals mean City’s dominance is not as secure as it once was. Guardiola may need to navigate one of the most challenging seasons of his tenure to keep City at the top.
In conclusion, while Manchester City remains the favorite, their margin over the competition has narrowed. A title win for Arsenal or Liverpool wouldn’t be shocking—it might just be inevitable.